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I NUMERI DEL DECLINO*

Saverio Fattori

 

 

Michele Belluschi, buon atleta e studente di Statistica, è nato il primo febbraio millenovecentonovantadue, è solo per questo andrebbe punito, la giovinezza è di per sè un affronto, ma è nato con un marchio di fabbrica che lo redime, il padre è Elio Belluschi, uno della generazione dei “Fuoriclasse lavoratori”, gente capace di farsi otto ore di ufficio ogni giorno ma di correre anche i diecimila in 29’28. Per Michele la passione è nel sangue, fortissima, ma non è facile arrivare a emulare papà. Non hai nemmeno la miglior prestazione del pianerottolo anche se i diecimila li corri in 31’26. Allora vuole capire, capire perchè lui non va forte come il padre, e perchè la sua generazione sembra infinitivamente più debole rispetto alle vecchie leve, decide allora di impostare la tesi di laurea su questa analisi, oggettivare matematicamente il declino.
E allora arriva la domanda perfetta da fare a Michele:
Al di là dei soliti piagnistei e delle solita ricerca delle cause della crisi, quali sono i numeri della deriva, che dati hai raccolto e come?
Complesso, navigando su internet è impossibile trovare informazioni approfondite sui dati del precedente millennio. Mi sono servito delle graduatorie in cartaceo raccolte in primis grazie all’archivio ASAI (nella persona di Gustavo Pallicca) e in seconda battuta da Silvio Garavaglia, il quale mi ha girato dati sui 10.000 metri che stimo abbiano in mano meno di 10 persone in Italia.
Le informazioni raccolte sono molte e mi hanno permesso di redigere una graduatoria che elenca gli 889 atleti italiani più forti di sempre sulla distanza dei 10.000 metri. Si arriva fino al tempo di 30’50″00.
I numeri che fanno più effetto sono sicuramente quelli relativi alla “quantità”.
Nel 1991 ci sono stati 148 atleti che hanno corso la distanza sotto il limite dei 30’50”.
Come un poliziotto che cerca nei vecchi archivi il colpevole di un nuovo reato. L’annata migliore è stata quindi quella che ha preceduto il tuo anno di nascita. Curioso. L’anno nero della corsa in Italia invece?
Il 2010, solo 23 atleti sotto questo limite, ma pessimo anche l’anno passato, sono stati solo 28.
Le nidiate migliori?
Abbiamo avuto una nidiata dei nati nel 1960 spaventosa. La classe 1963 (quella di Panetta, Mei e Nicosia) ha prodotto 31 atleti capaci di fare meno di 30’50”. In particolare i primi 10 per ordine di tempo restituiscono una media cronometrica di 28’30″7 (con deviazione standard di 35 secondi). Significa che mediamente avevamo 10 classe 1963 capaci di fare 28’30” sui 10.000.
Sai quant’è la media dei 1983, nati quindi 20 anni dopo? Non so dirtela: solo 7 atleti han fatto meno di 30’50” e non ci sono i numeri sindacali per fare una media su 10. E non è l’annata peggiore. Non c’è un nato nel 1981 che abbia corso un 10.000 sotto i 30’00”. E dubito ci sarà mai a questo punto.
Ti sei interrogato sulle cause?
Certo, mi sono interrogato sulla cause. Come sempre non si può incanalare il crollo delle prestazioni su una sola causa. E’ sicuramente una sommatoria di fattori.
Tra questi quello che mi affascina molto è il dato del “chilometraggio in età evolutiva”. In letteratura scientifica purtroppo non è stato possibile reperire una serie storica su questa tipologia di dati.
Ma sono piuttosto sicuro del fatto che i bambini nati negli anni ’50 e ’60, nonché primi anni ’70, nella fascia di età 5-15 anni, accumulavano una mole di chilometri largamente superiore a quella delle generazioni ’80 – ’90 e ora (sempre peggio) 2000.
Sostanzialmente tra giochi all’aperto e spostamenti vari (scuola, commissioni ecc.) i bambini che sono poi diventati fuoriclasse nella corsa sviluppavano un curriculum aerobico altamente funzionale a quello che avrebbero poi fatto da adulti.
Dimostrare a livello numerico tale supposizione sarebbe stata la ciliegina sulla torta per la mia tesi, ma come detto non sono stati rilevati dati concreti e ufficiali (almeno in Italia) da poter utilizzare. La mia rimane pertanto è una teoria confutabile. Altre cause sono sicuramente ricercabili nel declino d’appeal della pista a favore delle corse strada e dalla modifica delle metodiche di allenamento nelle categorie giovanili, dove la tendenza è quella di sviluppare uno scarso chilometraggio settimanale facendo però intensità di ritmo, contro un volume più elevato a livello chilometrico con tanta percentuale di lavoro a bassa intensità (corsa lenta).
La nostra federazione a tuo parere ha bruciato talenti, atleti che hanno espresso tempi importanti da giovanissimi?
Direi di no, il trend è invariato nel tempo, solo i numeri di base praticante sono drammaticamente calati, il crollo totale dei numeri interessa nella stessa proporzione anche le categorie giovanili. Tanto per dare altri numeri, abbiamo avuto 37 atleti nati nel 1964 che da juniores correvano i 5000 sotto i 15’00”. I classe 1995 usciti quest’anno dalla categoria sono solo 3.
No future quindi?
In generale posso dirti che è un problema che a mio parere difficilmente invertirà la tendenza. In federazione giustamente interessa più “la qualità”. Attualmente abbiamo Meucci, La Rosa e Chatbi che sulla distanza non sono proprio scarsi e tutto sommato non sminuiscono in modo esagerato a confronti con big della passato (Meucci sopratutto). Stessa cosa tra gli junior: abbiamo appena vinto gli europei di cross a squadre.
Il problema è dietro. Mancano atleti solidi che corrano nell’intervallo [29’00”, 30’00”], tempi lontani da qualsiasi medaglia ma che permettevano di dare lustro al movimento nazionale.
Tutto chiarissimo, il tuo spirito logico matematico non lascia scampo. Ora voglio uscire un attimo dai numeri. Hai scavato, riesumato fantasmi con cui dovrai confrontarti, da atleta evoluto come la vivi questa cappa che arriva da un passato così importante e così diverso rispetto al presente?
Non ti senti anche un privilegiato? Tu sei oggettivamente un buon atleta, ma se oggi ci fosse il livello degli anni Novanta raccoglieresti risultati meno importanti anche tu…
Sono molto contrastato.
Attualmente con il livello imbarazzante che c’è arrivo sempre davanti. Correndo la mezza attorno a 1h8′ arrivo davanti e spesso addirittura vinco…Vinco addirittura, ma se avessi corso in passato a quest’ora avrei tempi migliori. Le gare per fare i tempi erano eccezionali, specialmente in pista dove il tempo è quasi sempre più importante rispetto al piazzamento, a meno che non si tratti di gara da titoli o punti di società. Oggi invece mi capita di raccogliere meno in termini cronometrici di ciò che valgo perché si è spesso da soli, ci sono i buchi maledetti tra gli atleti, non c’è quasi mai la fila indiana che ti consentiva di scegliere al decimo di secondo, i treni giusti sono rari oggi.
Immagino la tua tesi di laurea vada ben oltre quello di cui abbiamo detto, avrai proposto tu l’argomento al tuo docente, come l’ha presa?
Ho scelto come relatore Piero Quatto, mente matematica eccezionale. In lui avevo apprezzato, ai tempi in cui avevo sostenuto l’esame di Calcolo delle probabilità, la grande disponibilità nel venire incontro alle esigenze dello studente. In sostanza se c’era un docente che poteva acconsentire alla stesura di quella che a pieno titolo può essere definita una “tesi estemporanea” (per l’argomento trattato) quello era lui.
Mi sono presentato dal dottor Quatto con i “compiti già fatti a casa”, cioè con una struttura già solida del lavoro per essere convincente. Lui di atletica leggera aveva un’infarinatura minima, ma è rimasto colpito dal fatto che avevo raccolto i dati e costruito il mio database in modo autonomo, al contrario di quanto accade nella maggioranza delle tesi di laurea da cui si attinge da fonti “già pronte”.
Ha pertanto dato via libera al lavoro, dandomi dritte fondamentali su come indirizzare la tesi affinché potesse avere una “valenza statistica” per farmi laureare.
Gli sono grato perché mi ha fatto realizzare un sogno. Quando mi ero iscritto a statistica, un mio amico mi disse scherzando “Ci sarò alla tua laurea quando discuterei una tesi sui 10.000 (già all’epoca, 2011, la mia passione)”. E’ successo davvero.

*Articolo già uscito sulla rivista Correre

 

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